Honestly, I did not plan to spend a lot of time talking about the election. I spent the better part of the last twelve months talking about it. I think it is important, however, to put this election in some perspective in order to move forward productively.
We know know that the Republicans picked up 60 seats in the House of Representatives (*as of the time of the writing of this blog piece*). We know now that the Republicans will hold at least 239 seats in the House of Representatives, larger than after the 2004 election and the largest margin since 1946. There are 11 House races still up in the air, and all 11 are Democrat-held seats. If the Republicans hold the 5 in which they currently lead, the total number of seats picked up will be 65, with the possibility of 71 if every race broke in favor of the Republicans.
We also know that the Democrats held on to the Senate. In fact, the Republicans are likely a little disappointed that they did not fare a little better. Worse yet, the trophy head they coveted, Harry Reid, lived to serve another six years. Of course, Harry Reid is likely a better majority leader as far as Republicans are concerned than Chuck Schumer, the likely successor had Reid lost.
More important, however, is what the Republican Party accomplished on a state-to-state level. The Republicans are now projected to control 29 governorships, with a couple of races still undecided, and now control at least 25 state legislatures. With reapportionment looming in the next month, redistricting will come well in advance of the 2012 Presidential Election, and Republicans are now in an advantageous position to create winnable districts (this is not an endorsement of redistricting, by the way...I believe it flies in the face of our Constitution). The governorships also provide the Republicans with something I thought they lacked in 2008 - rising stars. Haley, Martinez and Sandoval provide the Republicans with a diverse group of new bloods for 2012 and beyond.
A couple of other observations:
Both female CEOs, despite extraordinary expenditures, lost their Senate races.
Most of the "controversial" Tea Party Candidates lost (Angle and O'Donnell jumping to mind first, though Miller ranks among them as well).
Pennsylvania elected a very conservative Senator, which is certainly not the norm; it is reminiscent of the election of Rick Santorum.
Like it or not, Sarah Palin's "hand-picked" candidates did well: over half of her endorsed candidates in the House, Senate and Governor races won.
So what does this mean for today and beyond? I see some simple conclusions, particularly as we look specifically at 2012:
One, Sarah Palin is here to stay. Like it or not, she energizes some core Republican voters. I think the impact of her endorsements is a bit overblown, but it is hard to argue with results. Does this mean she will run for President in 2012? I tend to think she will throw her hat in the ring at some point, but she might be more effective in a non-candidate role (worse, she is exactly the Republican candidate that I am loathe to vote for: no fiscal restraint with a social agenda).
Two, the loss of the governorships in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio is a crushing blow to the Democrats. In order to get re-elected, Obama is going to have to carry at least two of these states; he acknowledged it by going to each state on multiple occasions and sending the fleet in to drum up votes. Unfortunately, Pennsylvania elected a Republican governor, conservative Republican senator, and Republican majorities in both the State House and the State Senate. Worse, in Florida, the Democrats lost a great deal of the Hispanic support from 2008. We know that the cycle changes quickly in politics, and a healthier economy will cure a lot of ills, but this is a body blow for Obama's chances in 2012, and he knows it.
Three, if I were a Republican, I would not get too excited quite yet. I anticipated last year that at least 35 seats could turn back to the Republicans in this election cycle (a combination of the normal off-year election gains for the non-White House party, plus the loss of Democratic gains in traditionally conservative/Republican districts from 2008). This is yet another election cycle where the American people cried out: We hate everyone right now...get us some people that can lead. I think Rubio had it right - the American voter handed the Republicans a second chance, and now it is up to the Republicans to finally define themselves (instead of merely saying "no") via affirmative legislative proposals.
The political landscape just changed significantly. The next good time to revisit the issue will be later in December, before the holiday, when the actions of the lame duck Congress can be evaluated and some of the rhetoric concerning the election has died down. At that point, we should have a window to peer through and see the Republican legislative agenda.
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